Ann: DEP irinotecan clinical data presented at AACR meeting, page-23

I think that you are (close to) assuming inside knowledge and trading, which is certainly not improbable, but failure seems factored in at a $57m MC.
The delays are another big red flag that is factored in, as is the past management and board incompetence, as is the market ignoring good news for down the track from Irinotecan.
These negative factors might well be indicative of a poor outcome.

The fact that we are not being given an extended deadline is annoying, but it would be dangerous for SPL HQ to be buzzing with mental activity trying to find some good conclusions from failed studies and not releasing the results quickly. I doubt the PI will be doing anything other than tying up lose ends, and will not want the responsibility of a completed report being kept confidential while stuffing around looking for silver linings.

We can be great at creating narratives that don't actually correspond with reality. We have binary events coming that may well be unknown by all, maybe other than the Principal Investigator at this stage. Does anybody want to give him a buzz and ask how it is going ;-)