20 cents, page-105

wb628, all view points are necessary to be expressed.

Previous Assumptions opinions and valuations:

''Number of shares: 183 mil ord + 90 mil opt = 273 mil total.
Cost per tonne is $12k.
P/E set at 7.
100% owned.

@ $20k/t, proift: $8k/t * 5t = $40 mil. (MC: $280 mil)
@ $30k/t, profit: $18k/t * 5t = $90 mil. (MC: $630 mil)
@ $40k/t, profit: $28k/t * 5t = $140 mil. (MC: $980 mil)

So:
@ $20k, the share price could be 280/273 = $1.02.
@ $30k, the share price could be 630/273 = $2.30.
@ $40k, the share price could be 980/273 = $3.58.

Of course, the share price represents CSD's value but with risk factors applied (which sometimes are completely wrong).

If tin hits $40k, my target price would be 50% (if the JV is occuring) of $3.58 plus the 10% 'free' carry value (plus the option money), ''

Good luck all and DYOR