HZN (ASX) Enterprise Value/brl 2P reserves

Originally posted by arsenic ↑

With my comment and a little EI, I have probably become the most accessable target of those who seek redress for the share price fall. I will provide these comments to the extent that the query for my perspective was genuine.

I am terrible at typing and with no autocorrect or highlighting of spelling and syntax errors I am comfortable with errors going through. The sobriquet arsenic implies I try not to take myself too seriously.

With the rescheduling of debt, I expect cash flow and debt are sufficiently in hand to stave of receivership and or a heavily discounted equity raising at these levels.

I think the salary for payment for the CEO is high but I think the same for all mining industry “professionals”. This is because return on equity has generally been poor and correlated largely with commodity prices which were boosted by China’s sudden emergence.

With that backdrop I do not begrudge Brent Emmett’s salary because I know that when HZN fell to less than 10c some years ago. The directors including Brent Emmett exercised Options at above the market price to get the compony trough. I have never seen this done before or since.

I think the company has done an excellent job proving up 2P and 3P gas and oil resources.

When I spoke to analysts to ask what they thought of Bent Emmett. They said he is a good focussed executive but they thought be pushed HZN’s case too hard. I can’t fault him for that.

Separately I believe Peter Strachan is as good as we are going to see from an accessible analyst on Aust. on O&G. (Charlie Aitken is better.)

I thought it was a good deal to get a contingent payment from the Japanese purchaser of gas assets in PNG even though it was contingent on LNG production.

I think we will get to LNG production via T3 of PNG LNG and get our funds $106m.

In a MSc. Mineral Economics lecture I asked Dr. Peter Moore thought of the potential for a gas pipeline via a Talisman syndicate being developed. He said the other pipeline to PNG LNG was the only one likely. I.e. the Talisman one wasn’t likely.

I think negotiations are at a delicate stage and need to run their course with Santos before HZN. HZN will then either get a share in T3 or cash or get taken over.

If we monetise the Gas Brent Emmett will have sufficiently earned his money for me not to quibble.

I watched all the development of OSH’s T1 and think HZN is modelled on it. My larger stake in HZN (even at these prices) rather OSH was predicated on my taking the bigger risk to attempt get the bigger return.

I have also bought a stake in OSH. I topped up on HZN at around these prices post the announcement of refinancing. I am a long term holder around eight years as a guess.

Importantly I am sufficiently diversified in my resource investment to not let HZN be a determining factor in my Investment success. I.e. I feel the pain but am prepared to wait.

In summary I believe in management and we have the asset. They haven’t waivered we shouldn’t.

Expand

Thanks. Good info. I like the name as I prefer highly concise potent doses to that end I think many are waiting at the same bus stop for

"...negotiations are at a delicate stage and need to run their course with Santos before HZN. HZN will then either get a share in T3 or cash or get taken over."

While I do agree on all your comments re management a wage revision is in order because the resources correction occurred sometime ago and hzn themselves have disclosed that they propose to opportunistically reduce project services costs offered in a depressed market. This is our business so I am confortable expecting the same of management who are professionals in the same depressed O&g market.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
29	1799652	19.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1799652

19.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
19.5¢	65166	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

19.5¢

65166

No.	Vol.	Price($)
29	1799652	0.190
11	481781	0.185
22	1153637	0.180
15	723857	0.175
22	1401358	0.170

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1799652

0.190

481781

0.185

1153637

0.180

723857

0.175

1401358

0.170

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.195	65166	2
0.200	236251	5
0.205	1080648	10
0.210	1258545	14
0.215	317392	5

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.195

65166

0.200

236251

0.205

1080648

0.210

1258545

0.215

317392

(20min delay)
Last 19.0¢		Change -0.005(2.56%)		Mkt cap ! $308.3M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
19.5¢	19.5¢	19.0¢	$255.9K	1.328M

Enterprise Value/brl 2P reserves, page-66

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