IFN 0.00% 93.0¢ infigen energy

LGC price $72.75, page-3

  1. 2,502 Posts.
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    When I do a back of the envelope consideration for LGC price impact on revenue for IFN, I firstly consider their 1Q FY16 results:

    Quarterly production of 393,000 MWh.
    LGC pricing was around say $52.50 for the quarter and total bundled sales price was $102.50.
    Now LGC pricing is $20 more. This translates to $20 * 393,000 MWh = $7.9 million extra revenue for this quarter at current LGC pricing.

    In FY2015 they generated 1,459,000 MWh. If they produce this much again by the end of FY2016 at an average bundled price of say $125 then that would be total revenue of $182m (compared to $134m for FY2015). Perhaps an EBITDA of $140m ($83.5m FY2015). This is an increase of 68% on the EBITDA.

    I'll take a stab in the dark and guess net profit of $40m. Divided by 768 million units and this would be 5.2c per unit and therefore a PE of 8 at current prices.

    Now this is just considering the installed capacity of 557 MW here and revenue derived from this and it looks great. Then there is the development pipeline of 1,200 MW that is now very interesting due to the LGC pricing surge.

    With the sale of the US business it's now easier to do these sorts of calculations.
 
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