AGM 0.00% $1.60 australian governance & ethical index fund

share price 1.00 within a few weeks

  1. 2,364 Posts.
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    Im not sure where AGMs SP will end up, but Im beginning to think Dweke2000s prediction $1.50 by the end of the year may be an underestimate.

    Recent events are adding up to a scenario that is certainly well beyond MY wildest dreams, and Ive been dreaming about the future with this company for over 7 years now.

    1) Nickel prices. Very recent news this week of uncertainty and delays with the Goro project in New Caledonia mean unless there is a worldwide recession, demand for nickel cannot be met, even if all other projects like Ravensthorpe come online on time, and ramp to full production.
    I believe its quite safe to use $30000US as a BASE price for nickel for the next decade. Real prices may well be over $40000US.

    2) Recent Upgrading of AGM to All Ords and SP300 mean the company will be seen as a potential Blue Ribbon stock.

    3) Recent share market “collapse” means many players will be looking for a more secure investment for their money. AGM is not a speculative buy any longer, and will be attractive. Nickel stocks in general will look attractive, but most if not all existing companies may be close to their true value. An indicator of this was a “sell” recommendation for SMY in the weekend Herald Sun. While this may be judging the company too harshly- it held very well under the recent “collapse”, it does indicate that there may not be too much more room for increased value in existing producers.

    4) Province status of Avebury deposit. As I have stated before, I don’t believe that AGM can claim it has a nickel province until it announces a second mine decline. But recent good exploration results at Saxon and then Bison mean that a second mine decline is certainly more probable than not, and Id almost go as far as saying that such an announcement appears certain to occur at some stage in the future, possibly late this year.

    5) The “Beards” visit to the US and UK. As some have suggested there is something going on behind the scenes we are not fully informed about- only because negotiations are not yet finalised.. But its no coincidence that Jinchuan recently purchased more stock, so they now own 4.7% of AGM. That’s exactly the same % held by Sempra Commodities, a LME registered broker in the US. Jinchuan had to get permission of the central Chinese government to buy these stocks, and AGM had no pressing need to raise the extra money the purchase raised.
    Note that in the last Quarterly Results, the production target for AGM has been raised to 150000 tonnes per annum (no date given). This all ties together somehow.

    The next month or two will be interesting. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a SP close to $1.00 in that time!
 
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