I completely disagree that the phase 1 results won't do much because its only a phase 1.
The dep technology is a platform drug, and as SPL are improving existing drugs - the only thing in question is whether or not the dendrimer is able to effectively improve the targeting (and therefore efficacy) and reduce the toxicities of existing treatments.
Docetaxel belongs to a group of drugs called taxanes, the same class of drugs as cabazitaxel and others. This means that if the dendrimer addition to docetaxel improves on regular docetaxel, it will improve other drugs in this class.
The phase 1 is so critical because it is a proof of concept - proving it works with docetaxel goes a long, long way in proving it will work for other drugs, such as cabazitaxel.
The amazing thing is, that in preclinical studies, dep-cabazitaxel and dep-ironotecan have had better results in mice than dep-docetaxel, and all indications are that dep-docetaxel results will be great.
Therefore i am certain, once the results of this Phase 1 come out, and SPL splurts out a line something like "dep-docetaxel enhances docetaxel, and therefore it is likely the dendrimer will cause the same benefits in other drugs", the share price will react accordingly.
I expect a big jump in share price off this Phase 1 news. It will prove that there will be a similar reproduceable benefit in other existing treatments.
And on the matter of us knowing that the results are already good, we don't know much for certain. We know theres no neutropenia and only one patient with alopecia, and that 2 patients have had SD (stable disease - in pancreatic and oesophageal cancer), but we know nothing of the other 28 or so patients. You need to keep in mind that docetaxel isnt indicated for the 2 above cancers, but is indicated for prostate and a few others. I expect that the patients in the Phase 1 who have the type of cancer that docetaxel IS indicated for, some will get better results than a SD. This is either a PR (parital response - tumour reduction of 30% or more, commonly known as being in remission), or CR (complete response - the tumour is completely gone). If we even get 5 combined patients with EITHER, this is HUGE news for a heavily pretreated patient pool.
I therefore believe the Phase 1, will cause quite the share price reaction. It will re-rate the company
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