General comments/chat, page-1069

Forecasters can publish whatever they want. I don’t believe their forecasts.

first, the predicted hpa demand growth is too optimistic and too early. Meaningful capex investment for increased hpa demand in the battery supply chain started in FY19. That means the projected growth in demand in sales / demand per the reports, isn’t going to start until at least 2-3 years down the track. It could be that companies such as w scope are playing “catch up”... but that’s hard to believe don’t you think. Decreased EV production in China (due to subsidy cuts) put a dent in the hpa growth for FY19. By my own calculations, the actual global growth in hpa demand from EVs between FY18 and FY19 was negligible. Growth was solely coming from the CE category.

second, if the blue sky demand growth for hpa truly exists, the existing producers would simply increase production. Hydrolysis = Proven chemistry, proven product, proven supply. The kaolin->hpa process will take more than a few years to “prove” itself in the market, that it is a reliable alternative supply. As with any new product in the market, hpa needs time to mature. It is an industrial chemical after all.

lastly, As we all are, i am looking forward to the scoping study numbers on the DSO. Keep in mind ATC Did a similar deal ... the kaolin was worth $10 a tonne.