Not really. COVID-19 crashed the market overall in March/early April and mid to late April/May has just been a 6 week recovery for all stocks (i.e. just look at the DOW) because in a downturn the market doesn't discriminate between poor and good stocks. All that happened last two months for ADN was SP going back to January 2020 levels with a bit of upside only with the PFS already priced in as per my post today, and the day before and the day before that too.
Yeah there are some hearts I am very weary about on HC, but Wombat is not one of them btw since he has been here a long time, unlike some hearts, not all as there are some good ones around, you see around who appear and disappear as per a magician and those types are your typical traders who don't offer up much research, apart from a chart here and there.
HC posts are really for information purposes only, and investments are yours to own. If anyone invests on the sharemarket because of posters on HC they should stop investing - investing is for you to own, and in teh speck side of the market free carry strategies are a key where you can (and ADN has offered free carry strategies over time IMO)
Now, here is question for you: What do you dislike about the PFS? Open question to you. Obviously I see the PFS as very good for long term holders, albeit the increase in timeline to production a slight negative given most would have been budgeting an earlier production date or the previous production date, but the resource is there as I have posted in the past. For me, the key negative in the Ann was the slightly increased imeframe because it increased from the SS and previous presentations, which I talked about in the previous post, because the rest I expected btw. Been largely free carried does help as well, as I also posted in the past, because this is a long term hold, always has been, as per the way I have posted on here.
Given ADN is a stock transitioning from explorer to miner, and Offtakes are now a key and financing not a large concern given low given capex need, it is not the type of stock going forward that traders/short termers will enter and exit like other spec plays. That is why I see the SP retreating to that low 5c level to upper 4c level, i.e. lack of interest as the traders/short termers move to teh next best thing for short term gains, but Offtakes is what will drive this forward (always has been the case too me as I have posted the last two months on here) as well as ticking the approval process to mining, and I personally suspect some of the delays here have been the result of lags in approval process timelines (as well as a lag in timeline through accessing water requirements for a wet versus dry process as well as port capacity space as transport systems are a key obviously to exporting product as well, as are mine approvals and heritage clearance approvals etc etc).
The other delay has been caused by COVID-19, but teh delay is small in teh scheme of things too me, and obviously too me this is simply a long term hold, always has been since teh initial SS that showed a 175% pre tax IRR, as did the next SS and now this PFS. IF that changes, then FA changes and time to sell, but delay by a small amount, well not an exact trigger to sell up IMO is you are a FA investor seeking to hold long term. If you are a trader/short termer, yep understand why they sold today - typical market reaction you see IMO. I guess when this gets too mining we'll see who ultimately has made the most gains here, so I'll leave it at that.
Finally, in production EPS and P/E ratios drive SP. As to dilution of the November 2020 options, my EPS estimates include the Nov options, all of them been converted. Repeat again, in production it is EPS and P/E ratios that determine SP not hype.
As to the heart comments, I wouldn't put Wombat in the category of some of the other hearts. He has been here a while, infact a long time providing research, which is what you don't find in the usual fly in fly out hearts you come across on many stocks, who are clearly traders/short termers. I don't always agree with Wombat as well when it comes to valuations, but like to read and assess the posts myself with my own inherent bias because we are all biased btw, including you, but as I said investment decisions are for investors to own, and if people rely on anyone on HC for investment decisions they should leave there money in the bank.
So back to you: What don't you like about the PFS? If your answer is I am a trader and short termer I can understand your views. If you have genuine concerns about the PFS numbers, well your chance to shine as well and educate myself, since I don't mind evaluating one's research myself and see whether it changes my FA perspective.
All IMO.
Agree. I personally feel the way JM was talking about ADN of late some may have been expecting an earlier production date, and/or more information and context and evaluation around the longer term strategy of HPA. For me I felt the PFS, would simply update the April SS, which it did, and reduce error margins to PFS levels.
Anyway, I see the driver of value been Offtakes and construction beginning at minesite, and obviously SP in production is a function of EPS and P/E ratios. I still see, obviously, ADN as your 1 in 100 exploration play that ultimately makes it to mining.
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