When I do a new sum of the parts valuation I will come up with something along the lines of the below ( which is very speculative ).
Assumptions:
Here's the results for 4,000 tpa, 8,000 tpa and 12,000 tpa. Result is ~ $40M to ~ $120M added to net profit depending on annual tonnage.
- High quality of ADN's feedstock allows lower OPEX (so this is factored into assumption 3 below).
- Price based on FYI DFS estimate for 4N at USD $24,000/t.
- ASIC based on a JV/tolling arrangement so using USD $12,000/t instead of ~ USD $6,000 per tonne in FYI DFS.
- ADN gets 75% share of EBITDA.
- Share Issue 2.6B ( assumes that cashflow from Great White allows dilution to be kept to a minimum )
- Cashflow from Great White's Premium Refined Kaolin business and Halloysite business allows them to use traditional debt funding rather than other dilutive approaches.
- Business starts in ~ 2026.
![]()
So that's just one possible scenario above - ADN pays a tolling fee to a processor and then gets a 75% share of remaining margin.
That's what it might be worth in production. Could add up $30M to $100M after tax on scenarios above.
A sum-of the parts value would include HPA as a risk-adjusted component of the above in an overall valuation.
They have said much recently about HPA, other than they are sourcing partners so there could be a surprise announcement at any time.
One big advantage ADN has is the size of their deposits so gives them a lot of potential to scale beyond production allocated to HPA beyond capacities above.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- ADN
- James Marsh - MD Interviews
James Marsh - MD Interviews, page-12
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 577 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add ADN (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
0.7¢ |
Change
-0.001(12.5%) |
Mkt cap ! $23.75M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.7¢ | 0.8¢ | 0.7¢ | $368.7K | 52.18M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
38 | 15737810 | 0.6¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.7¢ | 18747793 | 7 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
38 | 15737810 | 0.006 |
19 | 13023333 | 0.005 |
5 | 6475000 | 0.004 |
6 | 9446666 | 0.003 |
5 | 9400498 | 0.002 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.007 | 18747793 | 7 |
0.008 | 9726814 | 13 |
0.009 | 18171694 | 19 |
0.010 | 7777806 | 10 |
0.011 | 14987431 | 7 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 11/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
ADN (ASX) Chart |