DYOR. Highly-speculative and not intended as advice.
Some scenarios for 4N HPA.
Here's a couple of scenarios for a 3-way split. This assumes ADN and MEP have equal share with a 3rd party (equal share of collaboration partners is the most conservative scenario). One potential way this might be done is that feedstock from Great White is supplied by the ADN / MEP JV at cost into the "collaboration" for HPA. In such an arrangement ADN / MEP might supply the feedstock at cost as compensation for the HPA refinery/plant carrying the plant development risk.
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Here's how the numbers might look for the scenarios above if production was from Mt Hope feedstock. That would be a 50 / 50 split between ADN and the developer/operator of a HPA plant.
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I've used P/E 20.0 in figures above. So at P/E 30.0 the results would be very attractive! 12 kt pa scenarios would range from $0.90 per share for the 3-way split to $1.32 per share for the 2-way split.
Also - ADN's higher-purity feedstock should be able to achieve better AISC than USD $6000 / tonne used in calculations above, however I have used USD $6,000 / tonne to keep it conservative.
When could this occur? ... well depends on the maturity of the collaboration partner ADN ultimately select.
