Nsw opal card trial, page-3

I think that if it was terrible we would have heard about it or the trial would have been paused. The fact that they increased the trial was positive and I really think that coming out of covid it might only be a 6 month trial as appose to a 12 month one.

Back in January I did some back of envelope calculations on this:

In 2018, an average of 13m trips were taken each week. If and when we are successful with the pilot phase going live then assuming a 25% adoption rate in year 1 and a mediocre $3 fare average over 52 weeks would be $500m in GDV.I think the adoption will be more like 50-70% otherwise regular users won’t get their concession discounts and free trips on weekends etc so in year 1 it would be north of $1B GDV and circa $10-12m in revenue (10% uplift in GPR segment from 1 client in year 1). Could easily see this being $15-$20m in revenue in year 2 and 3 which would be a stunning effort!

Dont forget that these were 2018 figures and prices have gone up and in 2022 office travel will return to semi normal.

They will also look to include additional travel items in the ecosystem like cafes, restaurants or other touch points in the guest journey so this may be additional verticals within this vertical.

thoughts?