KDY (ASX) DW8 Growth

Originally posted by CreamOn: ↑

Hi all, interesting looking company and wanted to do some due diligence first. Interested to hear other people's perspectives but I've spent a bit of time doing a NPV of DW8 based on revenues, forecasted revenues, expenses and forecasted expenses. I get the following:

Assumptions
by Q4 calendar year 2027.
Revenue growth quarter on quarter: 25% until 2023, where it drops to 15% (due to scalability limitations). After which I've made assumptions to decrease revenue growth to more achievable targets.
Capital Raise Q1/Q2 2022 @7c to raise $6m
First profit: Q4 2023
Expenses: increase at $300k per quarter (Expenses initially increase higher than revenues). There is high variability with expenses going forward, and trying to look forward can be difficult, this was my best conservative estimation based on previous trends.
P/E: 40 - quite high compared to your blue chips, but it's a high growth small cap company.
Margin of Safety: 40% (lower than other calculations, due to slight de-risking of the company)
Suggest sell price: +30% of expected market price

Couple of thingsInteresting to look at the first post on this thread from @Salubrious who had a price target of 14c by 2027. I hope you sold out at the top of the rise to 17c! I must admit, I've used a few of your assumptions in my spreadsheet, so thank you for your DD.

Some things to note:
1. Dilution was more significant than forecasted in @Salubrious spreadsheet, with my forecasts requiring approximately 1.97b shares fully diluted (I'm unsure of any outstanding options etc, so I apologise for not incorporating this into my forecast).
2. I have forecasted earnings by end of year 2027 to be % higher than their spreadsheet. However, they are negative (blacked out) due to net losses until first profit.
3. Market price of 7c is considered fair given my forecast using a time period of 5.5 years (note this forecast above is for 6.5 years), so you guys could see a bottom here!

Open to any comments or discussion, as there is large uncertainty in a 6+ year forecast, I think I'll wait for either a price drop, or until I see fantastic sales after the December quarterly before investing.

Disclaimer: not financial advice, I am not a professional and is up to you to do your own research and invest based on your financial situation.

GLAH, I think if successful, this will be a long hold with above market returns.

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I think this is a bit too conservative. to get that $11 million in earnings in Q4 2027 we will need to take 5% of B2B on premise market. And that is only for B2B, not including ebay/amazon/vivino sales, and it's also only wine, and also only Australia. 5% of on premise is only 50k cases per month B2B.

I'm getting these numbers because we could bring in $35 per case revenue through B2B.

Example: B2B fee is $200 per case x 0.1 fee = $20 and then add $15~ logistics revenue on top of that, which then would be $35? so maybe $24 gp per case?

I also think it it safe to assume logistics GP will cover operational costs in the future, and then anything on top of logistics will be pure profit.