Please find below updated AspectHuntley's recommendation for BHP as at 18 Dec 09.
Huntley's Recommendation: BHP Billiton Limited
Recommendation: Buy
Key from BHP's perspective are higher copper and iron ore price forecasts. Long term iron ore prices rise 26% to US$50/tonne and copper prices 25% to US$2.50/lb. BHP leverage pips RIO marginally given its lower aluminium exposure - for which we left prices unchanged - and its coking coal exposure which RIO lacks. We raised the long term coking coal price by 20% to US$120/tonne. Iron ore, copper and coking coal are three leading ingredients for developing world growth via urbanisation led by China. Our valuation and earnings forecasts for BHP increase substantially.
Business Impact: We increase our BHP valuation 17% to $50.80ps and upgrade our recommendation from Accumulate to Buy. Our FY10 and FY11 earnings forecasts increase 25% and 35% to $2.47ps and $3.06ps respectively. Our preference remains for the diversified resource majors for metals and bulks exposure. We think BHP remains the clear winner from a business quality perspective, but RIO outshines from a valuation perspective. At a price of $70.80ps, RIO trades at a 30% discount to valuation versus 19% for BHP at $41.05ps.
E*TRADE Broker consensus estimates are 2 strong buy, 1 moderate buy and 2 hold.
Brokers:
> Austock Securities Ltd
> E.L.& C.Baillieu Stockbroking
> Intersuisse Ltd
> Morningstar Australasia
> Ord Minnett
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Last
$40.07 |
Change
0.335(0.84%) |
Mkt cap ! $203.9B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$40.21 | $40.33 | $39.97 | $89.69M | 2.232M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
17 | 3381 | $40.06 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$40.07 | 5434 | 13 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
16 | 3267 | 40.080 |
19 | 6415 | 40.070 |
16 | 3618 | 40.060 |
23 | 8942 | 40.050 |
12 | 3630 | 40.040 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
40.090 | 1503 | 11 |
40.100 | 4533 | 12 |
40.110 | 6262 | 24 |
40.120 | 5068 | 12 |
40.130 | 2672 | 9 |
Last trade - 12.28pm 20/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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