General comments/chat, page-34368

Mate, ADN needs to spend $93m to erect the plant to access the NPV and profit. Even being aggressive on 50% debt use, that will be a 25% equity dilution, ending up with 4billion+ shares on issue. If its all equity, that will be 4.5billion+ That's why companies like this get into a death spiral without confidence: lower confidence, more shares need to be issued to fund, so confidence falls again etc. Even in a perfect world, your NPV is going to be spread amongst an ever increasing number of shares. You can go back through my contributions to this ADN thread & I have been consistent about the fact these folks are capital market amateurs, and that would cost the company dearly. "Build it and they will come" doesn't work in this game. They needed customers first, even on non-binding deals. All the potential customers can see what's happened and have massive negotiating leverage - until ADN get one to break ranks and leverage off them. That may happen, but whatever your valuation of the business, be sure to divide by around 4billion shares unless things change and bounce quickly. My position in the company is infinitesimal so I have no issue holding it, but the lack of sales contracts is scary and is accentuating the downslide - together with "risk off" issues.