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Whiddon3

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03/11/22

09:15

Post #: 64560709
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Originally posted by Roon-Aus ↑

I agree with you that this seems like CAMI's end game behind the 6 month hold up (probably no coincidence that the AJN/DRC JV was being drawn up in May). My uninformed take is the below;

1 - DRC Government bring up concerns over northern end of CDL not being proven up and that it should be separated into new exploration zone. Likely after being whispered to by third party interests - Cong/KE.

2 - New AJN / Government JV drawn up giving the DRC 60% of the proceeds of any deals. Snack potential abounds. AJN likely makes backhand under-the-counter deal with Cong to sell out a proven up northern CDL tenement to Chinese interests for big bucks. Perhaps to Zijin. KE having always been an in-and-out guy, not a miner.

3 - Need to split tenement formally announced in ML Decree by Minister of Mines, after all this backchannel work, with AVZ assured not to worry because its a formality and you'll get the exploration licence. As MoM hasn't been party to the takeover strategy planned by the snakes.

4 - CAMI DG however, frustrates ML proceedings, indicating only a willingness to issue surface rights for the lower half of the 13359 tenement, and at the same time not willing yet to issue new exploration licence for the new cut off northern portion. Rejecting AVZs demand that they be issued together.

5 - CAMI DG indicates to AVZ that actually it would have to give up northern section, and that this was the President's wish - giving something back to the DRC. But then you'll get RD ML. Carrot / Stick.

6 - AVZ pushes back, especially after discovering this demand didn't come from the leadership but had its origins in a corrupt JF/KE/Cong triangle.

7 - Having been discovered and unable to secure the northern half through quick deal with AVZ, CAMI DG and Cong/KE make decision to push ahead with their territorial gambit anyway, secure in the belief they can bribe and sweet talk their way to success, poisoning the AVZ well at the same time through multiple avenues of propaganda and action.

8 - DG CAMI attempting to persuade DRC leadership that this is the most equitable pathway and would represent best chance for success in FT's battery plans, and also that this would end up with DRC having a 60% stake in the tenement. Reminders all round that there'll be big bucks to flow around when that's sold on to the Chinese.

9 - ?? - what's next.

Anyway this is all speculation, but it would explain a lot of the activity in 2022 IMO.

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A very reasonable and plausible summation of the events of 2021/2 @Roon-Aus

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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AVZ roadshow, page-175

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