By completing a ratio comparison on market cap to insitu metal value I have attempted to highlight the current ratio in view of a looming resource upgrade.
Essentialy there are a number of stages of 'questionable' market valuations for in ground resources. The closer a Company gets to development the more accurate these valuations become.
With respect to SVL they have a resource which is currently less than half the first target of 10million ounces which the Company believes it would need to entertain producing from a small open pit operation.
If the Company releases a resource update which moves it within sight of the 10million ounce base target, then the market will begin to build in an expectation that the resource at Webbs is more likely to result in a producing mine than where the current resource is at today.
So back to the ratio I referred too: If the likelihood of Webbs coming into production increases and the insitu metal value increases as a consequences of a significant resource upgrade, then it is fair to assume that such ratio's would be maintained or exceeded in accordance with the %increase in resource.
So my point is if the resource is upgraded from 4.6million ounces to say 7.0million ounces (at similar grades) then I would expect the minimum share price should reflect this by revaluing the shares at a similar ratio. (eg) move from $11m to $16.7m in project valuation or approximately 19cents.
This does not factor in any market expectation of a greater likelihood of production or further upgrades to the resource.
Working off such ratios is very rough indeed and until such times as some serious economic modeling is done, its only ever going to be a guide.
I have some very lofty expectations of this stock, so naturally I am going to come accross as bullish, however I do like a stock that can validate these expectations with cold hard high grade metal near surface.
Hope these ramblings helped
IMO DYOR
SVL Price at posting:
13.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
