prof - I have little doubt that if traxy’s can sell the kaolin (or someone can on their behalf and the end user is forced to pay a premium to use Traxy’s) on paper, it works and they have a balance sheet to enable it.
i just don’t think end users will be dictated to.
they’ve survived this long without ADN and they’re still producing. it appears that Ukraine supply has been soaked by “others” and they’ll continue.
the zircon replacement thing might work - but the saving would have to be more than the logistics leg, plus Traxy margin , plus the interest bill (coz it will be capitalised)
will this saving be more than the price of zircon? even if u said today it will , zircon price fluctuates - goes up and down. who knows?
will Traxys take a punt on it working for 5-10yrs to get their $120M back? or even 50% (because if it worked, and they got that far there’d most likely be a lender for the balance with Traxy’s name there) - are they able to lock in and tie up the end user for that long??? I’ve never seen a 5 year deal let alone 10.
again - it all works in theory and paper and fancy spreadsheets. If you’ve never delivered a mine from beginning till end, u truly don’t understand EVERYTHING that’s required.
look at skardon. that got all the way to having a plant!! couldn’t make product on spec.
I’ve seen what happened to the carbon capture plant. And that was just wiring (if u believe that)
there’s zero hope of a processing plant going on that.
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