Wealth Destroyer - Down 96%, page-17

Interesting principles of asset-centric investments that Medicxi are involved in. For anyone that thinks this partnership is a 100% guaranteed beautiful marriage destined to last forever, think again. Venture Capitalists are pretty ruthless. It’s just a numbers game IMO. Quotes below from the Drug Baron article discussing Medicxi (link provided):

’And so these became the core principles of asset-centric investing: control costs; drip feed capital; kill aggressively and only pay for directly actionable data.
But what confers these properties on the model?
Three key characteristics: First is a relatively low initial chance of success of any of the assets (X), below around 1 in 5. Second, the model assumes that there is a zero cost (in resource or capital) of acquiring the projects in the first place. And lastly, the assumption that there is an inexhaustible supply of initial projects of similar likelihood of success. In short, assumptions that describe the early-stage investing world pretty well.’

So my summary is: similar to how AstraZeneca were unsuccessful in progressing three AZD0466 trials past Phase 1, it seems realistically the chance of success factored for this model is low (1 in 5).

The asset-centric model assumes zero cost in acquiring the project. Yep that’s exactly what Medicxi paid Starpharma: Zero

And if there an early red flags to success: Kill the project quickly and move on to the next venture.

https://drugbaron.com/lessons-from-monte-carlo-models-why-drug-development-is-hard/