TLG Chart, page-3969

Hifolks

Up this morning way before the sun, so I thoughtI would play with the charts across a number of stocks. Here is my TLG effort.

Initially I wrote a rather large post about this chart, then decided to spare the reader and break down somewhat. More might follow later.

One of the main features on this chart are the two silly seasons, bullish and then bearish.
The bullish period started after CR shares were issued and lasted 2 week where enthusiastic buyers chasing shares from reluctant sellers for shares with loyalty options attached to hold to record date for the options. Which was last Friday. In that period we saw the SP rise from 39 to peak at 47.
I wrote in my long winded post much about this.

The bearish period start this coming week. After the CR and the bullish options chase buyers may have had their fill for a while, while I suspect that some sellers surface after qualifying for option from both CR and the chase trading to take some money off the table. Certainly those using the pseudo call option strategy will appear. More sellers and fewer reluctant buyers is bearish.

I found no mention in the loyalty options announcement of TLG monitoring trading, like they did for the CR, before the loyalty option issue date 13 Sep and adjusting the allocation. So it looks like open slather for any selles.

Secondly my modeling forward projections month by month. Since late 2023 we have been expecting that SC decision. I can't chart the SC decision process. Can't use the last 3 year period as a serious reference because other 3 year periods could be vastly different. In my long winded post I gave a number of examples for this.

However I can chart the effect of no decision surfacing month by month.

I did some modelling based on the 5 month period looking at the monthly closing price while waiting for the SC decision, expected at any time.
Here are the closing prices I based my model on. Feb=87.5, Mar=73 , Apr=68 , May=61 and Jun=58. The compound rate of decline was about 7% a month. Using this model I have come up with a forward projected series of SP at the close of each month without the end of the SC string being found.

The start I used was the CR price of 38 for Aug. I may change that starting price to the closing price of next Friday a week after the start of the bearish season, we shall see.

Here is how to read my projections. No SC string during the rest of Sep expect the monthly closing price to be around 35.
Similarly no news during Oct expect the closing price to be around 32.5. And so on.

So a decision surfacing in Sep for those buyers in both the CR and bullish season. Their geniuses.
An Oct decision surface they are certainly astute investors. Then it can change

However if my modelling is in anyway accurate then no decision before Melbourne cup day then the SP at around 32.5c.
So for those spending $30,000 in the CR would get roughly 80,000 share and have 10,000 loyalty options. With the loyalty options they would be required to spend another $5.500 to exercise them to full shares before the 13 Sep 2025. If I am in anyway correct by Melbourne Cup day you could buy 10,000 normal shares (pseudo Loyalty options) with nothing further to pay ever for $3,250.

All the above is just me playing games if my modeling. I have no idea of when we will find the end of that SC string we have been pulling on for such a long time. My 7% compound decline per month may prove to be inaccurate as well, it's just a guide. In that series I drew the model from one month declined 10.5% the next 5% I am expecting a repeat of that sort of behaviour.

So that why I have called this period starting early Sep to the end of the year the Silly season. Basically it's gambling serious money on a SC decision.

Only my opinions, so certainly DYOR.


cheers Lies