Just found a presentation by Rocksource at Pareto Securites 6th EP Conference in London from 3 days ago:
http://www.rocksource.com/getfile.php/Filer/Rocksource%20%40%20Pareto%20Securites%206th%20EP%20Conference%20London.pdf
Extremely helpful for anyone that's not up to speed with CSEM surveying. There's a plain and simple example of how powerful it can be on page 11 and 12.
Best page is 13 though. The success rate of Rocksources exploration wells is currently at 56%. Look at the pie chart, AGC Profound seems to make up about 20% of Rocksources entire portfolio. And the best part is the graph of the success rate of wells.. Strong EM anomalies have a 70% success rate.
I'd say Rocksource is just being conservative with they're "50%+" success chance of Kora considering "The CSEM results from two lines that cross the prospect(Kora) show a strong positive anomaly that conforms to the mapped structure."
One last piece of information some of us might not know "The AGC Profond PSC contains several, commercially viable, low risk prospects. To date, 16 prospects have been mapped and these represent a total un-risked resource potential estimated at approximately 1.7 billion barrels of oil equivalents (Bboe)."
http://www.rocksource.com/senegal-guinea-bissau/category144.html
I remember reading about Kora back in May-June sometime and feeling VERY annoyed I couldn't invest in it. I thought there was almost no chance of ME negotiating a piece of it.. VERY glad to be proven wrong.
IMO Kora is in the bag. And with that comes a treasure trove of data win or lose. At 70% success, 25c pre spud seems pretty reasonable.
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