NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--An index designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in inflation fell back to the lowest level since July 2004 in May.
At the same time, a smoothed version of the annualized growth rate fell into negative territory at -1.8% compared to a positive reading of 2.3% in the April.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute said Friday that its Future Inflation Gauge decreased to 117.1 in May from a downward-revised 119.5 in April.
The gauge was pulled down in May by declines in measures of loans, commodity prices and supplier deliveries.
"The U.S. future inflation gauge has just dropped to a 10-month low. If this decline continues, U.S. inflation is likely to enter a cyclical downtrend," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
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