Dhukka , perhaps you should post a new heading "45000 DOSES A...

Dhukka , perhaps you should post a new heading "45000 DOSES A DAY" that makes That is 5% takeup.

Actually Pos, in my discussions yesterday, 13,000 a day was the figure for starting in September 2011. So I assume it would ramp up to between 30-45k if all goes well by Sep 2012.



Retail sales of just over $16 Million Dollars.

Second Year 10% is double to $33 Million Retail.


Ten percent for POH IS $3.4 million. If we have a PE of twenty then its worth $68 Million of Market cap. Remembering this is a 10 % penetration.

If ANZ. is 10 %. Of eventual Global Sales then we could reasonably expect to acheive $680 Million Market Cap from this. Perhaps four years out from now.

The ANZ sales will give guidance to Global Sales.

These numbers could be kicked around for days, but are some sort of guidance.

What we should be watching closely for is the results from further trials and a contract with Global corp capable of rolling this out.

Bottom line is this announcement should be seen as positive.



I mean this in all seriousness pos, pleas do some kind of basic financial analysis course, I almost feel embarrassed for you when I read your analysis. The Securities industry (SIA) courses used to be alright, although they don't call themselves that anymore.

Lets' step through some basic analysis. 5% penetration rate would equal between approximately $1.1 -$1.6m for POH in revenue but of course, they wont do this kind of volume for the full year because as stated they are starting from a lower level.

Forget my 13,000 figure and we'll use your 18,000 (between a 2-3% penetration rate) as a starting point and extrapolate a linear growth through to a 5% penetration rate by end of September 2012. That gives you a range of approximately

$875,000 - $1,150,000 for the first year. This on it's own will not make POH a cashflow positive entity in the next 18 - 24 months.


Now this is revenue. but a P/E is an earnings multiple and earnings are profit after tax, you cannot apply a P/E ratio to revenues. If you did and you presented this kind of analysis to sophisticated investors you would be laughed out of the room.

Furthermore even if it were earnings, which it is not, you still can't apply a multiple to it if you company overall is making losses. In short if the company has no earnings, ie they are losing money you can't apply a P/E multiple, it is just that simple.

The only way to take account of possible revenues from Matistis is to incorporate it into a DCF, that's probably exactly what the analyst that covers POH over at SCE was doing yesterday.