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bundybo7

419 Posts.

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02/05/17

07:38

Post #: 24397842
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Originally posted by Matt Adl ↑

Just went over where they are at and financials, there are few key points of contention that could determine a good entry point.

1st at 0.006 a share the orders are stacked @26m making it unlikely you will get in unless you buy at 0.007.

2nd DMX-200 with a 50% probability of clinical success - these figures need to improve somewhat through the testing phase as customers and doctors are going to prefer a higher % of success.

3rd product can license to a pharma partner in FY19 (base case) or FY18 (optimistic case) for US$30-50m upfront, US$100-200m in milestones and an 8-12% royalty. Finding a pharma partner and developing an upfront revenue followed by MS+R agreement is not guaranteed on these figures, if this translates succesfully your looking at estimated 13-30c company minimal; however, this is at least 1-2 years off.

4th product launch in FSGS in FY22 (base case) or FY21 (optimistic case) in the US and FY23 (base case) or FY22 (optimistic case) in Europe - long way till product launch, creating little interest in the stock or chance at recouping investment, it would be a MT/Long play for sure

5th company raises another $10m at $0.01 per share in order to complete both halves of the current Phase 2 for DMX-200 as well as move other pipeline elements forward - this seems like the best time for a short play, if you can acquire at 0.007 and they plan to CR at 0.01 translates to .3 raise; however, looking at current turnover, not sure how the SP will hit that target unless the subscription is to SI only.

Bio-pharma is highly speculative with significantly high peaks with substantial down-turns between, this company is still a fair way off and I would predict closer to the end of the year may be a better accumulation point if you don't want capital tied up. Right now it would be a pure punt, but if your keen on it give it a go and see how it turns out, will keep my eye on it and see how the company progresses.

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Matt i like your work, always informative , interesting and backed up with research ,

Last edited by bundybo7: 02/05/17

QBL Price at posting: 2.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Matt i like your work, always informative , interesting and...

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