Jaks,
CTP thread is smoking...Probably see green on Monday...
Anyway...
"if i throw a dice 6 times am i guaranteed to roll a 6 at least once? While the odds are increased at the outset, with each unsuccessful roll the odds decrease and there is absolutely no guarantee, so that part i will have to disagree with."
Good question...
Although it is all academic now...
It should be understood that the initial probability of 6 rolls remains intact until the last dice is rolled...
Whether the same dice is rolled 6 times... Or if 6 dice are all rolled at the same time.... The probability of at least one landing on a 6 will remain the same...
If you take one dice away your changing the question.... Its a probability over 5 dice now...
You can't discount the initial roll if it misses a 6.
Even if you roll the first dice and don't get a 6 the probability for an event with 6 rolls remains intact unitil the last dice is rolled....
Similarly the probability across 3 wells remains intact until after the 3rd well is drilled.
If you drill one well and then apply probability to the remaining 2 wells you are changing the question....
CTP is drilling 3 wells not 2.....
"I can understand the probability of 71% of 1 well succeeding at the outset. Bob this is the probability of 1 in 3 being a success"
Correct.... However 71% is the probability of 1 well succeeding across the entire event.... Not just the first well...
Even if the first well fails it does not change the probability... Like rolling 6 dice at the same time will have the same result as rolling the one dice 6 times....
Remembering that I questioned Daves initial email cause i believed it did not look right... So I approached from a perspective seeking to find faults with his calculation...
Only to find it is spot on!!!
I think we are debating the wrong thing here.... The 71% figure is concrete...
The real question is how accurate are these percentages supplied by CTP???
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central petroleum limited
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5.5c cash backed and 3 mind boggling wells, page-91
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Last
5.8¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $43.22M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
5.8¢ | 6.0¢ | 5.8¢ | $7.674K | 130.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 86339 | 5.8¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.2¢ | 298302 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 86339 | 0.058 |
3 | 417550 | 0.057 |
1 | 20000 | 0.054 |
2 | 805498 | 0.053 |
1 | 300000 | 0.052 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.062 | 298302 | 1 |
0.064 | 177600 | 2 |
0.065 | 154810 | 2 |
0.066 | 135712 | 2 |
0.067 | 238068 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 25/04/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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