CTP 1.89% 5.4¢ central petroleum limited

5.5c cash backed and 3 mind boggling wells, page-91

  1. 2,889 Posts.
    Jaks,

    CTP thread is smoking...Probably see green on Monday...

    Anyway...

    "if i throw a dice 6 times am i guaranteed to roll a 6 at least once? While the odds are increased at the outset, with each unsuccessful roll the odds decrease and there is absolutely no guarantee, so that part i will have to disagree with."

    Good question...

    Although it is all academic now...

    It should be understood that the initial probability of 6 rolls remains intact until the last dice is rolled...

    Whether the same dice is rolled 6 times... Or if 6 dice are all rolled at the same time.... The probability of at least one landing on a 6 will remain the same...

    If you take one dice away your changing the question.... Its a probability over 5 dice now...

    You can't discount the initial roll if it misses a 6.

    Even if you roll the first dice and don't get a 6 the probability for an event with 6 rolls remains intact unitil the last dice is rolled....

    Similarly the probability across 3 wells remains intact until after the 3rd well is drilled.

    If you drill one well and then apply probability to the remaining 2 wells you are changing the question....

    CTP is drilling 3 wells not 2.....


    "I can understand the probability of 71% of 1 well succeeding at the outset. Bob this is the probability of 1 in 3 being a success"

    Correct.... However 71% is the probability of 1 well succeeding across the entire event.... Not just the first well...

    Even if the first well fails it does not change the probability... Like rolling 6 dice at the same time will have the same result as rolling the one dice 6 times....

    Remembering that I questioned Daves initial email cause i believed it did not look right... So I approached from a perspective seeking to find faults with his calculation...

    Only to find it is spot on!!!

    I think we are debating the wrong thing here.... The 71% figure is concrete...

    The real question is how accurate are these percentages supplied by CTP???





 
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