MFG 3.02% $10.22 magellan financial group limited

Everything you mention is of genuine concern, although my...

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    Everything you mention is of genuine concern, although my comment was mainly directed towards what is clearly hysteria and Trump Derangement Syndrome that overstates the extent of these and does so to a large degree. For example the post I responded to specifically mentioned "recovery" of the stock market, not the real economy when most major indexes were down in the range of 4-7% from all time high. There's no such thing as a 4% market "recovery", this is clearly ridiculous. I've seen the same terminology and what is ultimately clickbait mainstream media rhetoric across the board and if you simply look at the numbers which most people clearly aren't doing its objectively absurd. We've had the same rhetoric and talk of recession/stockmarket/economic collapse countless times since and before Trump was elected when in reality the state of the real economy right now is significantly more boring and has failed to showcase any sort of catastrophy. People didn't talk about every moment of the stock market in extremes five years ago.

    To your points on the real economy, 2.1% economic growth in the global climate is by no means something that indicates on its own something to fear when inflation is so low. US house construction numbers are seasonal and incredibly variable month to month so to use one month as an indicator is ridiculous, however the overall trend is still in an up cycle over the past 10 years, and has been reasonable static for the past 3 years. I don't see how this is a valuable indicator in this case, especially not one month. Employment numbers down by half a million isn't a rate its a number, the rate is likely unchanged however jobs grew at 170k rather than 210kish a month over 2018. Again, I see a framing issue from the media trying to shit on Trump rather than a genuine cause for concern here. All the data I've seen (and contrary to predictions and what you've said here) show that corporate profits are up and at the highest level they have ever been, albeit with slow growth.

    The trade situation is complex but I do think Trump is in a significantly weaker position and a deal is unlikely to be ironed out because of the election, and ultimately term limits after that. Xi not having to deal with short term political pressure in the way a US president does. Either way if nothing is worked out in the medium term investment and trade will occur elsewhere. Most of the largest companies affected have the capital and ability to reroute their manufacturing and investment elsewhere over time. In the current situation, as well as the negative coverage of the US economy over the past 12 months, China's "slowed growth" is to some degree overstated compared to media rhetoric when looking at the numbers.

    "fund inflows have likely fallen off the cliff due to the trade war and ongoing volatility in the world markets...Would be close to zero i imagine."

    Also this was stated in the comment I replied to, I said this was ill considered and of course when looking at the last FUM they increased at a typical number. There was even percentage growth in holdings despite the volatility and constant howls of recession heard in the mainstream media.

    I'm not saying there's nothing to worry about because everything you mentioned is worth considering, but at this point its hard to see serious concern, even if the China trade issue became significantly worse.

    Last edited by Jean Luc Bergman: 06/09/19
 
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