wont be a good qtr me thinks, i always read the update from...

wont be a good qtr me thinks, i always read the update from bigbrother (JMS):

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Global crude steel production during Q1 FY2023 increased compared to Q4 FY2022 however for most regions, with the exception of
India, production was lower than the same quarter in FY2022. Weakened downstream demand from industrial and construction
sectors, particularly in largest producer China, during Q1 FY2023 has led to a large oversupply and build up of inventories at steel
mills. Demand was significantly impacted by lockdown measures and associated restrictions during Q1 FY2023 as resurgences in
COVID-19 were experienced in main metropolitan areas in China.
Manganese alloy prices, in most major alloy producing regions, rose at the beginning of the Q1 FY2023. An increase in raw material
and associated production costs coupled with supply concerns following the political unrest between Russia and Ukraine led prices to
surge. However, prices corrected themselves throughout the quarter as supply concerns abated in markets outside China. Meanwhile
in China, pressure from the downstream steel sector coupled with the increased production costs have squeezed the margins of
manganese alloy producers during Q1 FY2023 and this has intensified to date. Factories have been encouraged to decrease
production in order to stabilise the industry as downstream demand has yet to recover.
Manganese ore prices for both seaborne and portside material jumped at the start of Q1 FY2023. The increased restocking activities
coincided with a shortage of high grade oxide material. Semi-carbonate prices leveraged off the increase in high grade oxide prices
but further increases were hampered by sufficient supply. However, seaborne prices started falling back during April and May 2022
as consumers felt the pressure from the subdued downstream steel sector. Portside prices diverged from seaborne prices towards
the end of the quarter as the Chinese economy felt the impacts of renewed lockdown measures and traders were left with no choice
but to increase portside prices as seaborne materials denominated in US dollars became progressively more expensive with the
depreciation of the Chinese Yuan.
Stocks at main Chinese ports fluctuated throughout Q1 FY2023 and by the end of the quarter were sitting at approximately 5.2 million
tonnes at the main ports in China. A steady decline of semi-carbonate material at Chinese ports has been noted recently as
consumption has increased and this has lent support to semi-carbonate prices in June 2022.
Freight rates have increased as oil prices rose following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the end of February 2022 and have since
then remained elevated.

gltah