I stumbled across the graphic below that may be of interest. As...

I stumbled across the graphic below that may be of interest.

As expected it had a very high growth rate for lithium (23.3%), cobalt etc. I wasn't expecting Manganese to be as high as 7.4% pa across the 2019 to 2029 period because the size of the existing steel industry demand would moderate the overall industry growth rate. At 7.4% pa it implies Mn ore production increasing from circa 50mt/yr to 100mt/yr by 2029. E25 reported a graph some time ago that had the sector being 40Mt in 2010 and having grown to 50Mt by 2019. That 9-year period had annual growth averaging 2.5%.

If this estimate is correct or even reasonably close, its going to keep Mn pricing at or above the marginal cost of new operations rather than the cost curve of any efficient existing operations. This would mean bigger profits for major players like S32. It would also help keep the Mn price in the range where Petra Capital have forecast the ore business would be profitable.

I have doubts about whether there is that much growth, but it is what it is. DYOR

Visual Capitalist future value estimates
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/the-future-value-of-disruptive-materials/