ADN 6.25% 1.7¢ andromeda metals limited

ADN valuation - what DFS NPV is required to justify a SP increase from here?

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    I don’t hold any ADN, but I do have a lot of MEP, which is undervalued by about 60% relative to ADN, assuming the full value of MEP’s 25% share can be realised for (long-suffering) shareholders. So I’m keen to understand the potential of ADN.

    The Andromeda Pre-Feasibility Study announced 1 June 2020 had the following parameters:
    • After-tax NPV8%: A$511m
    • After-tax IRR: 135%;
    • Maximum cash requirement: $28m
    • Payback period: 15 months (from start of mining)

    ADN Market cap (based on 2,248m shares & options):

    • After feasibility announcement (5.9c close on 1 July): $134m = 26% of NPV8
    • Current (24c close on 3 Dec): $540m = 106% of NPV8
    • Peak (33.5c close on 23 Oct): $753m = 128% of NPV8

    A quick review of other companies after-tax NPV and EV shows that typically NPV is 35 to 70% of EV - let's say 50% as an average.
    So at the current 24c price and the 50% ratio, Andromeda is pricing in a post-tax NPV of around $1.08bn from the Definitive Feasibility Study that we expect in the next six weeks or so.

    Questions for punters:
    • Is a 50% NPV:EV ratio reasonable for Andromeda?
    • Is a post-tax NPV from the DFS of at least $1.08bn likely?
    • Other thoughts on valuation?
    Last edited by nicwix: 04/12/20
 
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