Weekly Review U Stocks - 22nd Mar 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 34 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 another new All Time High this Week of 5261, closing closing towards the high at 5234. Also, unlike Fridays, it dipped this week. Weekly, over 2% gain. So no stopping the indices on the back of mighty tech stocks.
- Volatility Index VIX is just over 13 - very bullish, so a small trip 15 now seems to be bedded and bulls in total control
- Bitcoin doing wild swings now. After 73k dipped 15%, trying to recover, at 64k now, so below last week level, after seems a long time a weekly loss
- Sentiment Indicator - at Greed 72 - many would think with indices doing great we would be at least Extreme Greed, but some punters still a bit shy
- Russell 2000 overall not doing great, more important indicator for risk-on/resource stocks. This week though it gained around 1.5%, still less than other indices, and on Friday was again panicking, drop of 1.3% - so still not giving strong bullish signs
- Yields still very high and not coming town to a good level
- Dollar Index too at a higher level
- Mr Powell for once was dovish this week on his update and signalling some rate cuts this year, markets lapped up to it
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li:
- Indices no stopping it looks. Many were thinking of some pullback, but Mr Powell dovish comments has kept it going. It will pullback at some stage, but better to follow price action rather than predicting. When going down, it was in same trajectory and many got it wrong
- Russell 2000 is key for us, we want that to go up - hopefully when indices pullback, there is some rotation from big tech stocks to some risk stocks
- Key economic data this week around - PCE mainly, but usual weekly data
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium Spot first signs this week that we may have seen a bottom. No confirmation though yet. I have been writing CCJ needs to hold 139, it reached there 4 times coming back from 50s, this week it didn't reach 39, and came back from 40. Spot price was also in pullback, dropped from 106 to 85, but signs now in some platforms that it is trying to make way up, getting towards 90. Another thing which I have been writing is that our next rise may come in end March or April, so we have reached that stage. Another point in favour, some of the bigger U stocks in ASX doing better, any rebounds is led by them. So cautiously optimistic at this stage, no confirmation yet, this week should provide more info.
- Lithium Sector overview - Its still in consolidation phase, same as I wrote 2 weeks. Most Li stocks had a big bottom around Feb 6th (and around it). Most have recovered from their very bottom, though some still around it. A recovery happened. Many Li stocks gained between 20 to 50%. Now a back-test/consolidation phase is in play. Last week it looked better that a consolidation may have finished, this week from that perspective was not great. Looks like still some time to go - at least that is how I am playing, I could be wrong. ALB did not succumb this week, but neither did it show any positivity. Whole week traded in a narrow range of 120 to 128. The level 120 is held for now, lets hope it does, otherwise it might just trying to another 52 week low which will affect a lot of Li stocks, so a crucial week coming up. To get positive I would like to see ALB get over 128, but more importantly get towards 150, SQM over 60 - till that time it could be a cat and mouse game
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Personally:
My current situation this week - 15% U, 30% Li, 40% Others, 15% cash. Main change from last week is have increased Uranium from 5 to 15%, reduced Lithium from 50 to 30% and increased exposure to some more biotech/tech/gold etc, so Others went up from 30 to 40%.
U stocks I bought a few of them this week, watching now if we have seen a possible bottom - one more drop/bad day may/should come, and if we sustain that, I will more confident.
Li stocks have reduced my holding, starting early in the week, and also mentioned in one of my posts. There is nothing alarming at this stage, but it looks like, it is not ready - yet. But it can change in a day/week etc, so watching every move.
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In Others last week I had added a REE and biotech, this week added more in biotech, one gold, and one tech. Biotech generally doing all right, so hedging my bets there.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- Last week AGE went into its weak zone of 4.6 to 5.3 range, this week a slightly better play and got into 5.3 to 5.9 zone. this is its favourite zone where it spends a a lot of time before moving up or down - so I would say its currently in its comfort zone. But a better week than last one.
- Weekly perspective, gain of 9%, from 5.2 to 5.5
- U stocks gained 4% for the week, so after a big loss of 8% last week, some good rebound
- U stocks up 7% for the year, better than last week, but well below mid 30s of January
- Big stocks did well this week led by DYL/PDN/BMN and others also with decent up. So good signs for the sector there
- Personally I mentioned January 19th weekly report, I had exited most. This week I picked up some, my exposure increased in U sector. I bought some AGE also at 5.4 but not much. I am expecting a slight bounce, another drop, and maybe from there take off. Next drop it may be my big time. If I was only playing this sector mostly, I would have bought my fill at these levels, as risk/reward looks fine. But because I play other sectors, I am looking for a bit more confirmation, happy to lose gain of initial - so its individual choice
- U future is now at $85 at TradingView which I follow, some platforms have it going towards 90. It dropped from 106 to 85 - so a decent correction - anything 20% is decent, and many times sufficient. Lets see if it plays out that way.
- On Friday US U stocks were in green, so hopefully a good start to the week
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)
