Weekly Review U Stocks - 12th Apr 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
.
.
Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
.,
.
There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 34 stocks.
.
.
I was away on a break so couldn't do last 2 Weekly Reports.
.
How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 finished this Week at 5123, due to a big drop on Friday of close to 1.5%. Weekly, around 1.5% loss. So no big drop, but Friday has tested some nerves. Still in a very strong uptrend from 3500, so dips may be part of the rise. Question for many analysts is that will it do around 10% or may reverse before that.
- Volatility Index VIX is at 17.31 - first panic button for punters, rising 16% on Friday on the back of big drop in indices. So caution time. Below 20 is still fine, but a big rise on Friday, if it continues could go over 20
- Bitcoin doing wild swings now playing between 60 and 75k, currently at 67k
- Sentiment Indicator - at Neutral 46, one of the worst readings of recent times. Another couple of points and we will in Fear zone. Another indicator which is talking caution from overall market perspective.
- Russell 2000 overall not doing great, more important indicator for risk-on/resource stocks. This week it lost another 3% and first time dipped intra-day below 2000 in nearly 2 months - another caution
- Yields still very high and increased after high inflation reading
- Dollar Index too at a higher level and going up
- Gold, Silver and Oil doing well
- Overall caution at this stage based on market indicators
.
.
What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li:
- Indices after a big drop on Friday is in an interesting zone. It has been rising continuously for quite sometime, all the dips have been bought, will this be bought as well or will we see further drop below 5000 for SP 500? Important week for general markets - a big test
- Russell 2000 is key for us, we want that to go up - its been worst performing index and signs still not good. There is only one day it has gone below 1900, so on weakness, hopefully comes back from some 1900 number
- Key economic data this week around - no major market moving, but usual weekly data, Fed speech etc
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium Spot first signs this week that we may have seen a bottom. No confirmation though yet. I have been writing CCJ needs to hold 139, it reached there 4 times coming back from 50s. In my last Weekly Report 3 weeks back, I had mentioned that signs look good that 139 may hold, a number I had been calling for sometime. CCJ made a new All Time High on Friday at 52.64, before general market dragged it down. For those reading my posts, Since January I had been alluding that our next good rally may come in April. Somehow it has played out that way. Spot price has settled in high 80s in recent weeks. So was Friday the high of this rally with CCJ making a new high and now we go back or we will see the rally continue? I don't thing its easy to say, but my feeling at this stage that we have not seen the end of this rally, CCJ may make somewhere between 55 and 60 before it goes back and prepares for next leg. But anything can happen, general markets also being tested.
- Lithium Sector overview - (Overall same as my last report from 22nd March). Its still in consolidation phase. Most Li stocks had a big bottom around Feb 6th (and around it). Most have recovered from their very bottom, though some still around it. A recovery happened. Many Li stocks gained between 20 to 50%. Now a back-test/consolidation phase is in play. ALB, which I use as an indicator, twice moved to 130s this week, but played exactly like last time when it went to 130s, after a few days a big drop towards 120s. We saw the drop again on Friday and moving towards 120s. For me anything below 128 we are in weakness zone. Last time ALB did retreat from early 120s, so if it can do it again, that would be good. Otherwise we need to hold at least 118, maybe even 120, otherwise probability of making a new 52 week low below 106 increases, which would not be good for most Li stock. Though individual stocks on their announcement could continue to make gains. Spot price is still rising, which is positive, and gives hope of a recovery.
- On Friday US indices got hammered. Some believe due to spooking of Iran/Israel possible conflict escalating. One to keep to eye on. Sometime geo-political events create some panic, sometimes just a big drop (like Russia/Ukraine) and quickly recovering, other times could be sustained. Something to keep an eye on this week.
.
.
Personally:
My current situation this week - 35% U, 15% Li, 40% Others, 10% cash. Main change from 3 weeks back is have increased Uranium from 15 to 35%, reduced Lithium from 30 to 15%. Others ( biotech/tech/gold etc) remained at 40%.
U stocks I was anticipating a rise in April which I have been writing since January. Stocks haven't yet rallied that much even though CCJ made a new high, so possibly some catch up to. Main stocks I am playing CXU (big), AGE, PDN, BOE, BMN, LOT, EL8, DYL (medium), 1AE, GUE (small)
Li stocks have reduced my holding further. A month back it was 50%, last report 3 weeks back 30%, currently 15%. Mainly because Li macro is not improving to a level I was hoping. Main indicative stock I follow ALB is back in weakness zone, SQM also below 50. So playing at level to level for some stocks, others holding more time - AZL (playing long), VUL, RDN, CY5, LLI (bought recently)
.
In Others,
REE - WA1 (holding for long from $8), MEI (from a month back at 21) , ENR (added this week, 30.5), ENV (added this week, 1.8),
Health - DXB (30.5), BOT (19.5), EYE (23), PYC (8.3)
Gold - PNR (from a month back 5.5)
.
.
Stock/Sector specific Info:
- This week AGE played into the middle zone of 5.9 to 6.8 - one would say beautifully. Range bound trading. Key was it did not go below 6, which was good. Next play has to be to get over 6.8 and play for next level up to 8.1.
- Weekly perspective, gain of 3%, from 6.2 to 6.5
- U stocks gained 6% for the week, so a decent week
- 3 stocks made a new 52 week high this week - BMN/LOT/PDN - good signs, stocks back into making 52 week highs
- U stocks up 16% for the year, better than last week, a couple of pushes and we could first get to 30s of January
- Big stocks again did well this week led by DYL/PDN/BMN and others also with decent up. So good signs for the sector there
- Personally 3 weeks back I had written that after exiting most U stocks in January I was buying. I had mentioned I had bought some AGE at 5.4. Added more later. My average now 5.6.
- U future is now at $88.75 at TradingView which I follow, a gain of $1.75 for the week. It dropped from 106 to 85 - so a decent correction - anything 20% is decent, but now making a base in mid to high 80s, may crack 90s soon
- We want CCJ to stay above 45 on any weakness for a rally hope to continue. If it falls below that it may retest 139 level. Upside to make a new high and stay there. Hopefully Israel situation doesn't spook the market too much
- On Friday US U stocks lost average 2%, so maybe a soft start to the week, but ASX U does surprise sometimes
.
.
Here is the Figures for the Week:
.
.
(20min delay)
