AGO 0.00% 4.5¢ atlas iron limited

AGO - my valuation

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    So all  this talk of bananas is giving me the urge to put a valuation on AGO based on my forecast displayed in my thread dated 27/8/17. The usual valuation methodologies I employ are:
    1. PE Ratio - cannot be used here because profit < 0
    2. EV/FCF - OK here because FCF > 0
    3. NPV - OK here because FCF > 0

    Valuation Methodology:
    A. EV/FCF
    1. The EV/FCF is calculated by dividing the EV (Enterprise Value) by FCF (Free Cash Flow)
    2. EV = MC (Market Capitalisation) + Debt - Cash.
    3. FCF = Operating cashflow - sustaining capital + net interest expense (adjusted for tax)
    4. I used FMG as the reference company and calculated a EV/FCF of 5
    5. The AGO FCF from my FY2018 = A$52m. I have added back the interest A$5m to give an adjusted FCF of A$57m
    6. AGO EV = 5 x 57 = A$285m - A$30m (FY2018 Forecast Cash at 30/6/18) - A$0m (debt fully repaid in FY2018) = A$255m
    7. AGO EV per share = A$255m/9164m shares = A$0.028
    B. NPV
    1. Discount rate = 8%
    2. Used AGO's minelife and production forecasts
    3. Otherwise based on assumptions in my forecast
    4. NPV was applied to FCF over minelife
    5. The result NPV = A$263m
    6. AGO NPV per share = A$263m/9164m shares = A$0.029

    So taking an average of the two valuation methodologies the current value of AGO = 2.85 cps. Compare this to the current AGO SP of 1.90 cps and the maximum SP upside is 0.95 cps which is 50%.

    There it is and I'm sure this will ruffle a few feathers
 
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