I agree with you Haz.Zacko, I have arranged finance for an ASX listed Coy.
...and finance is my day job for residential, commercial, business and equipment.
I can assure you financiers do not consider the NPV in their analysis.
To be clear, I have never had a discussion point with any finance coy where value of the business was a condition of the loan.
Sure, assets get valued as a way of loan recovery but in cash flow lending that will be limited to physical assets and not Coy value.
IMO you are trying to influence the less educated in the finance space, and I am not buying.
Here is some simple finance education...
Financiers are mainly interested in the surplus cash to service the debt.
Debt servicing is about the capacity to pay, not the value.
e.g. Revenue less Expenses = free cash to service a loan.
On cash flow lending, typically the free cash needs to be a percentage higher than the loan cost.
e.g. Loan of $1,000,000 @ 6%pa = $60k interest cost
Some lenders might request 1.5 times interest cover.
i.e. free cash needs to be at least $90kpa
($60k x 1.5 = $90k)
This is a simplified calc as a demonstration.
ADN plan to pay off the loan in 5 years so principal payments will also be taken into account.
IMO Once the above is established, the focus of the lender will be ensuring the free cash is sustainable for the proposed term of the loan. i.e. are the BOAs solid for the term? Are the operating expenses likely to sustainable and consistent over the period.
I know the lender will not care if the NPV (and resulting share price) is 500Mil or a $1b.
However, logic tells us ADN, with an operating mine, will be worth significant more than it is today.
GLTAH
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