Projects are funded on the current economics and spot prices. Sure investing for the future demand makes sense but how long will this demand take to improve the economics?
I believe projects that are compelling at a 20% discount NPV have a lot better chance of getting funding, which makes sense. Go through other studies and use 20%. The best projects get funded alot easier. I believe it's a great filter to find investment opportunities where you then take a week to research the whole company.
If I find a project compelling at 20%, I then look at the potential upside from the current market cap. I wouldn't invest in a project if the upside is already factored in.
I raised concerns with the DFS and reasons why I won't be investing. For me, it's not compelling enough at the current DFS and market cap.
I should state it doesn't mean this company won't be able to be funded. But personally, It's not in my risk appetite.
If you used the same filters with the previous studies, would the economics have stacked up? Would you have invested?
I haven't looked at the previous studies but might do a comparison at the relevant market cap next week.
However, if this is an improvement and it's near lows, I can almost guarantee it would have been an even stronger fold.
I'm not here to annoy shareholders, I've never attacked the company. I just think the DFS is average.
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