Ann: Africa Down Under Presentation, page-45

Here's some more hype for you.
The fertiliser prices that actually matter for Minbos over the next couple of years are phosphate and more importantly triple superphosphate which is linked to the phosphate price.
The phosphate price did not correct with other fertiliser prices throughout this year and is still holding very strong. That has helped to push the triple superphosphate price back up from its recent correction with a 15% increase last month over the previous month. That followed a smaller increase the prior month. This hype is also factual - the table below is from the World Bank. The TSP price is currently rising and it is above the DFS base case assumption. That DFS base case assumption gives an after tax NPV for MNB of A$315 mill which is equivalent to roughly 35c per share diluted for all outstanding options. More "hype" for you although it is straight from the DFS and the actual shares and options on issue, so also factual. While the ammonia price has corrected heavily from last year's bubble, that was to be expected and makes no difference to the current phosphate project. The green ammonia project is not priced into the current low sp so it really wouldn't matter what the ammonia price does this year. The ammonia price over the next 25 years starting in around 2 years time when construction might be set to start is what will matter and the current correction will be history by then just like last year's bubble. One thing we do know about the green ammonia project is that it has a green, reliable, hydro power, energy supply agreement averaging just 1.1c per kw. It will be profitable at any realistic ammonia price assumption even when other ammonia plants might need to temporarily shut as they did last year at a time of record gas prices. Those high gas prices, if repeated in the future, would be a positive for Minbos's green ammonia project with its fixed energy cost and exposure to the higher ammonia prices that would result. The green ammonia project can only offer upside potential to the sp as it is clearly not currently priced in with the sp at 10.5c and a phosphate DFS showing an after tax valuation around 35c on a project that will be in production next year.