Well if you look at a 12 month chart, market says fair value has...

Well if you look at a 12 month chart, market says fair value has been about where we are currently.

Factors to consider against that are that CAPEX will be more expensive, however the announcement suggests the debt to equity ratio may remain unchanged so the increase in equity needed will only be proportionate to the increase in cost. If the increase in cost is matched by a similar increase in revenue then the situation remains relatively static to now only on a larger scale.

That is actually overall a bullish factor because once debt is repaid which should be relatively quickly what we are left with is a bigger annual cashflow. It is important to remember we basically have an indefinite LOM compared to what we are producing.

You also have to recognise that over the next 3 months we have the SMS green light, costing details and eventually finance approvals. These are the key de-risking events for the project. Given SMS have basically given timing and cost guarantees, plus quality assurances on the plant build it takes a lot of the execution risk most resource producers face out of the question. If we do experience them we will be compensated.

Therefore from December on the primary risk is just time and commodity prices, but that goes for any resource stock. I think if you are aiming for anything under 11-12c you are unlikely to see it on the volume you want.

Good luck for making your entry decision.