Some thoughts. Feedback welcome. Corrections on anything I get wrong welcome.
I like the potential of the technology. The wide temperature range, the use of sodium in place of lithium and the safety relative to lithium.
40% cheaper is good. There is no shortage of new tech in batteries being worked on though so who knows what else comes to market.
The investment case.
1,666 packs per year at around 40% of the lithium packs price.
Tesla home battery sells for around A$15,000 (before rebates) for 13.5kwh.
ATC packs will be 60kwh so 4.44 times the size of the Tesla home pack. 4.44 x $15k = $66,666.
40% below that price would be $40,000 per battery.
1,666 batteries would provide a revenue of up to $66million for the JV partners.
ATC's 75% of revenue is $50mill.
Profit maybe 50%? I.e. 25mill?
$157mill mc. Future dilution to fund?
Risk from competing technology?
Expansion potential on success?
Maybe around fair price now?
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