Just quickly re-worked some previous analysis I posted over at...

Just quickly re-worked some previous analysis I posted over at MEP, assumptions used can be found here.

The "Pre-Acquisition" table uses ADN's current fully diluted SOI and a 75% share of NPAT.

The "Post-Acquisition" table adds MEP's current SOI (multiplied by 1.15) and increases ADN's share of NPAT to 100%.



IMO this analysis is quite conservative as it does not include any upside from DSO/Cosmetics/Concrete/HPA/NNT/Deferred tax assets etc, although I believe this will help justify a higher PE.

As a base case, we can see that the acquisition of MEP adds ~ 9% upside to the Pre-Acquisition share price.

The downside to be considered is that ADN have now diluted all other tenements/holdings apart from GW, Camel Lake and NNT. Although, depending on how much of the current market cap is attributed to these other tenements/holdings, this may not be a significant share price driver.

**DYOR