Here is a link to a breakdown of the world's airlines:
https://www.t2rl.net/airline/
Having a little look at the numbers:
Tier 1: 36
Tier 2: 50
Tier 3: 80
So let's say for example we get 5% of airlines to take up our sensors next year:
Tier 1: $1.25M x 36 x 5% = $2.25M
Tier 2: $0.75M x 50 x 5% = $1.75M
Tier 3: $0.375M x 80 x 5% = $1.5M
Giving us $5.5M for year one and this does not of course include the cost of the sensors.
And assuming we start picking up airlines at a faster rate in yr 2 with 10% of airlines coming on board (so 15% of the world's airlines in total):
Tier 1: $4.5M
Tier 2: $3.5M
Tier 3: $3.0M
So $11M in new revenue, 2nd year recurring revenue from existing customers:
Tier 1: $2M x 36 x 5% = $ 3.6M
Tier 2: $1.25M x 50 x 5% = $3.125M
Tier 3: $0.75M x 80 x 5% = $3M
For $9.725M + $11M = $20.275M
Given that includes no sensor sales and that our sensor sales are very high margin I am going to assume that at a bare minimum the figure above will be pure profit yr 2. Meaning if they pay out say 80% in dividends (management have said they intend to be the highest dividend paying stock on the ASX so using a high payout ratio) our dividend for year 2 could be 13c per share. And with a very conservative PE of 15 for a high growth/high yield stock (rare combination!) we get a stock price of $2.45. Given how conservative the figures I have used are, I expect that the SP will be SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER than that, considering the figures management have indicated for the sensor sales.
Once again very simplistically I am going to assume we have an average of 50% of the available market at full fleet adoption at year 10 (I am guessing pretty much 100% market penetration at various stages of adoption):
Tier 1: $15M x 18 = $270M
Tier 2: $10M x 25 = $250M
Tier 3: $5M x 40 = $200M
For $720M per annum
Using the same metrics as above with 80% payout ratio gives $4.65 per share and a share price at an ultra conservative PE of 15 (considering the massive growth and dividends) gives us a SP of $87.
So I will potentially be earning $82k per annum in dividends and have shares worth $1.5M with my relatively small holding.
The potential is huge. Let's hope they live up to it!
(20min delay)