"'cause your base case of 20% growth is getting smacked out of the stadium" - I believe you may have misinterpreted my posts Sojourner.
"At a 20% p/a compounded sales growth.....This is my bear case scenario" - Post #14600739
"I incorporated a 20% sales growth rate into my 'bear case' scenario, which if it were to occur, I estimated I'd lose 9% p.a based on a 78c purchase price over the next few years. Obviously to invest, I think NAN will exceed those forecasts" - Post 14640519
Also, keep in mind that I did state that bear case incorporated 20% sales growth compounded annually over 5 years. So y5 sales growth would be around 41.47% of FY14 sales. I think whatever growth rates NAN achieves, it will be a diminishing rate. Merely because of the difficulty maintaining a constant growth rate off a larger base ie: it's a lot easier to double sales off a base of $20m, than it is to double sales of $200m.
But mis-quotes aside, I'm happy with the update and if NAN achieves FY15 sales of ~$30m that aspect will be inline with my bull case. I'm very interested to see if they've been able to improve GP margins closer to their aspirational GP margins, especially with the added kicker of a depreciating AUD against the USD.
Regards
Gralynchett
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