Yeah - I thought about export bans and by that I presume that...

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eastwest101

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27/02/24

18:21

Post #: 72626800
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Originally posted by dolcevita: ↑

Yes Occam's razor principles say it's just an arbitrage play of JPM.

But strategically, this is a critical mineral and the 10% incentives that the US has offered have not worked.

There are more ways of getting the Li than owning a mine although the latter is the cheapest obviously. But the Chinese are desperate for this quality and type of Li.

Gina, SQM and Creasy via the BidCo will sell Li off take to the Chinese.

If US-based whales aren't alive to this issue then something is wrong.

So even if the deal goes through or the compulsory takeover we are potentially still looking at export bans as a delayed response, FIRB is not the only mechanism the government has.

I am hoping that a bigger offer is around the corner.

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Yeah - I thought about export bans and by that I presume that you mean Australian export bans. For the Australian government to do that they would need to have enough midstream/downstream processing capacity outside of China (i.e. local, South Korean and Japanese capacity) for that to happen otherwise they would be be risking a supply shock to the global market.

Or are you suggesting some sort of global or US export ban of "strategic minerals" into China? And that presupposes who is in the Whitehouse, which we don't know yet.

Or are you suggesting some sort of Australian export duty or price disincentive mechanism for the export Spod to China? If so, the Chinese would just use third party commodity traders/middlemen to bypass these policies anyway, so can't see how they would work.

Last edited by eastwest101: 27/02/24

AZS Price at posting: $3.54 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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