ADN (ASX) Ann: Binding Sales and Distribution Agreement with IberoClays SLU

Originally posted by TheEndTimes: ↑

you’ve done a reasonable job with ur questions so we’ll start here for bio
i don’t know how it’s gonna b financed as u correctly point out. cannot see a path.
company way too top heavy.
any large equity investment to make this work if u can only raise $10M - $20M means ownership / control is given away. its the reason why adn merged with minotaur- u want control.
no financials around 100kt/pa plant but my guess is it most likely would be profitable.
$100M would be pretty close.I’d go $120M for buffer and roads / infrastructure / water pipelines etc etc and working capital . going into production without a healthy balance sheet is suicidal.
so where’s all this money coming from? all debt isn’t an option.couldnt afford the interest and no lender in this environment with commodities in the crapper would jump.would they do a portion? maybe.but it would depend on where the rest is coming from.if it’s a big company then it’s more likely.if it’s not, then goodluck.
hows the debt secured?
there’s a reason why Li mines and Ni mines are closing and it ain’t just the commodity prices.risk is huge at the moment and these companies know if they have to bridge or take on debt it’s unlikely to occur right now. will it change? absolutely. these are cycles. when will it change? dunno

What’s the ownership structure look like after getting all this money past which the company can raise?

there are so many more questions

as for the offtakes

dunno.are they real? Last ones weren’t.
lets assume they are
there’s a few distributors in there.can they on sell the product? Dunno.Just because they can sell “X” is not a forgone conclusion they can sell “Y” - doesn’t work that way in industrial minerals.
it’ll take a LONG time to sell all this.you’ve heard James say it takes years to form these relationships. probably truest thing he said.
how many CR’s can the company handle whilst going through this process?
if u think Traxy’s will just give an ongoing line of credit to pay fat wages until it all gets sold and then stump up for the plant, they won’t. Doesn’t work that way. Only when Traxy’s have fully binding contracts for sales will they even begin to think about financing. Their business isn’t about risk.its about selling product.
then if all of that works and u get finance and all the offtake then u have to make the product.
watch those Samso interviews.every now and then there’s some truth…one of the things said was it’s incredibly hard to get each product just right…time and time again.its not iron ore at 62% it’s all good crush, screen and ur away.
where ur told its a simple quarry operation, that bit is true.but the rest is complex.

Look, I admit that the story looks a lot more believable under the new regime and the pathway a lot more sensible. but at $70M MC there’s still way too many questions and other companies that represent better value to punt on.if it was $20M that would b different.value proposition changes.
a lot of things have to line up and go exactly to plan for this to become real.i’m not saying it’s impossible. but I’d want quite a few questions answered before u spent money here.
these questions shouldn’t have to be asked.Thats what financial studies are for.

Expand

It started good actually. 'We'll start here for BIO'. My ears pricked up.

But then you went on a major deflection and responded to SZ which had little to do with BIO's post.

ANy chance you could be neutral and respond to Bio's post?

and wait ; the previous BOA's were not real?.? .... LOL. I nearly fell of my chair

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(20min delay)
Last 1.6¢		Change -0.002(11.1%)		Mkt cap ! $49.76M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.8¢	1.8¢	1.5¢	$797.4K	49.05M

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