Gina buying should be good short term.
Not sure what she holds before today, but at most, 4.9%. She needs to buy 15% on market - a lot of free stock today with people cashing out for certainty (particularly after Liontown). However, after this, stock will be hard to get (may be Delphi sell its 9% for certainty but they can't be that stupid, knowing that stake is worth a premium if you tried to buy that on market).
SQM have thought this through a little bit with the back-up off market takeover - which has no minimum threshold (i.e. bid is not conditional on getting at least 50.1%, 75% or 90% - typical conditions).
The Takeover Offer is not subject to any financing or due diligence conditions and does not have a minimum acceptance condition thereby providing a liquidity opportunity in the event the Scheme is unsuccessful.
If SQM get to around 35%-40%, they will most likely have effective control of Azure (noting that rarely, is there more than 75-80% votes cast at a General Meeting). If they get Creasy's 40%, it makes it hard for anyone else who isn't happy with a minority interest long term (Japanese, Koreans yes - Gina not sure).
So a 19.9% stake isn't as good as it was at Liontown.
If Chris Ellison also starts buyng, then that is a lot of stock being bought which can only push it higher.
