The SYR presentation is very flash and does communicate the...

The SYR presentation is very flash and does communicate the market potential for graphite and also the broader EV forecast demand. This broadly reflects the 2025 market timing that Jeremy Sinclair mentioned in BAT's recent video interview and also the written presentation materials.

I've got no doubt that int he not too distant future, the demand for energy materials (whether it is lithium, graphite, nickel, manganese or cobalt) will be significantly up on what it is today (if not multiples). That's the easy part - picking the timing is the difficult part and that's where we look to professional forecast organisations like Roskill. Will the inelastic supply-demand response come in 2025 or 2020 or 2027? Who knows - all we can really do is invest with some comfort that the fundamentals look good on the horizon.

SYR rightly identified the shift towards EV many years ago and the early followers had a great time riding that wave - good for them. While they picked the EV theme correctly, the market timing was out - now they are in a world of pain with what I understand to be a malfunctioning and grossly oversized processing circuit, delivering into a soft graphite market. Operational and plant design issues aside, they just came into the market too early. I'm not across their financing arrangements, but I would expect SYR to be under considerable pressure. The recent cut in production from 15kt/mth to 5kt/mth is massive and would drive up fixed cost amortisation against a much lower revenue base. That's real pain.

I'm kind of happy that BAT hasn't got a pile of project build debt to service and is commissioning into a soft market.

BAT is a different story to SYR - different market timing, different operational configuration and output aspirations, different people involved. If anyone is looking for a quick bump in BAT to double their money in a few months, this isn't the investment vehicle for you. Put your money into a gold explorer in WA that is about to commence a drill program - then get out quick when the promotional results start to come out. BAT is a much longer term proposition - more of an investment than a pump and dump.

I have lost (on paper) about 60% of my recent investment and while I'm not too happy about that, I know it is only on paper and I know the future market fundamentals are on the side of BAT. What is the EV of the company - maybe A$11M ? So cheap (if I wasn't overweight in it already, I would be buying more!!). I'd like it to be so much more now, but can wait, with the knowledge that the asset EV will be multiples of what it is today when the time of revaluation does finally come.

The challenge for BAT now is to make it through this soft period without issuing a blizzard of paper in equity raises. That is probably something that wasn't done well int he past - ploughing ahead with construction in a soft capital market and having to issue a truckload of paper. Lesson learned I guess.

BAT's presentation may not be as flashy as SYR's, but I don't really care about that. I think the new MD is cut from a different cloth than the old management. Comes from a strong operational background and is wanting to move the project (and company) ahead in a responsible way (yes, slow, but still considered). I wouldn't worry that he doesn't have a finance background - getting a finance solution together is a short term exercise (objective) and financing advisors are a dime a dozen on the street - it is much more important to have someone that knows what a mine should look like, how it should operate and can actually build it and hold the asset to account. I think we have the right guy in the chair (but yes, he needs a new marketing person to tizzy up the presentation graphics).

No doubt my views are very much different to the majority of posters on the BAT thread - just thought I'd add my 2c worth.