@Odds&Evens I am just a retail investor. In my opinion, the...

@Odds&Evens

I am just a retail investor. In my opinion, the company is undervalued at its current price. Essentially, if you think that Travelan and the other things Immuron are doing, e.g. clinical trials, have any value, then you would see the company as undervalued. The company has been trading below cash (market cap is less than its cash balance). This means that investors think the company is worth less than it would be if it were wound up or liquidated. It is also the case that some fundamental things have changed, e.g. resumption of international travel, resolving the supply issues, but the price is still around the lowest it has been.

I invest for the long term and am assuming that the price won’t change quickly, but I see a lot of value over the long term at these prices. That said, I have only recently been looking at the company, so let me know if I am missing something or if I haven't covered something in what I will be watching below::

• Protectyn market - in my analysis, I basically ignored Protectyn. For the half-year ended 31 December 2022, revenue from it was $26,830. Travelan is the flagship product which is what I am mainly looking at, but I would like to see more revenue from the Protectyn market in the future.
• Transparency – it looks like there were issues getting information when it was out of stock. However, they have been providing quarterly updates (1, 2) and answering investor questions in those. FDA feedback for the clinical hold was expected in March 2023, so I would like to see some update on this in April.
• Milestones - the clinical trails etc. will take a long time, but I would be looking to see that they are progressing over time. In the quarterly updates, they have set milestones for these activities.
• Costs - Immuron Limited has reported a loss for the half-year ended 31 December 2022 of A$1,978,383. Considering they had a cash balance of $18.5 million as of 31 Dec 2022. I am happy with this at the moment.
• Margins – I expect it to stay around 68%-72% or slightly below
• Growth in revenue - FY23 YTD 24 Feb 2023 revenue of $1.23m. At the end of the financial year, in total I would like to see it around at least 2 million or more in revenue. From reading previous posts, I get the impression that the marketing and growth for Travelan has been lacklustre in the past. They have said that they reviewed and made some changes to their marketing strategy. Plus, Flavio Palumbo joined around November last year as the Chief Commerical Officer. He is now in charge of growing Travelan sales in the existing markets of Australia, Canada and the USA and will explore new markets including the UK, Europe and Asian markets. Hopefully the growth and revenue numbers are more respectable going forward.
• Competitors – my understanding is that Travelan is the only product that can help prevent travellers diarrhoea. There are plenty of products for treating it, but Travelan is the only one for preventing it.
• International travel rates - Travelan sales are highly dependent on the International travel numbers, so changes in this would impact Immuron.