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Ann: Ceramic Tile Conference Presentation, page-56

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Junhaus11

944 Posts.

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24/02/24

15:40

Post #: 72577140
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Originally posted by SignOfTheTimes: ↑

Ukraine is a mute point in all this.

The war has to stop, the site needs to be rebuilt, staff trained, equipment ordered, and the plant will likely have been bombed/damaged. Possibly some of these items will be long leads. This process will take years. Then they need to establish trust, who will take the risk on their kaolin? Forget about prepayments.

Then if all goes well, they have the job of rebuilding themselves; normally they export 65% of their kaolin; forget about it. The local demand will be off the scale for a decade.

Then we go on to the opaque pricing. The BOA's that got cancelled last year by Bob were at a lower price than the DFS. And now all pricing is in excess of the DFS prices. Specifics are not disclosed but we know prices are rising. Like everything else - how can that be?

and a CAGR of 4.5%, by the time Ukraine gets back online demand will have doubled.

I hope the war ends sooner rather then later

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I believe the major kaolin processing takes place in the Donbass region which I can't see Russia ever losing, so it's likely they'll be the new producers which, as you say, won't be for many many years.

ADN Price at posting: 2.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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