I have not done a DCF for MVP, as I think the assumptions using...

I have not done a DCF for MVP, as I think the assumptions using that method would be really rubbery. I think the revenue per whistle in Europe is around AUD$75 a pop. With regards to margins, not sure, as they have moved all over the place of late. We'll be able to get a better picture of this when the ramp up in sales and marketing slows down - maybe end of FY22, but probably FY23.

My preferred valuation method is to consider the potential takeover price. In the end, if MVP succeeds, that's probably the best outcome for shareholders (sorry, I know that's not the objective). My guess is by FY25, $850m market cap company which is around $12 per share.

Essentially my best guess would be if US-FDA approval is provided, Penthrox should have peak sales of around $250m. This figure is based on prior estimates by MVP, but I think that's not so far out of the realm of possibility. A rule of thumb for phase 3 drugs is 3xpeak sales, so using a conservative multiple like that, you could see a potential price of $750m. If that sounds ridiculous, just remember that MVP was trading at $12 once on the expectation of global growth.

The medical devices is less important. But if they are able to expand to ~$20m by FY25 with their US expansion, then medical devices typically trade at 5xsales. So that's about $100m too. This may be a bit generous, but it's not so material.

They have sufficient cash. I spoke with the CFO and they weren't worried about having to go back for capital raise, at least not in the near term. They could also sell medical devices if they needed the cash, but not anything they have planned. So you can basically assume the shares on issue won't change substantially from here.