Ann: Corporate Presentation, page-4

Looks as if the market was asleep on this update! Some really key points especially relating to the basket and pay-ability. Did no one else run the figures hah!

Interestingly i had calculated the basket to be $35.5USD and IXR announcement suggests its $34.5USD
Post #:45578193

Note, i had built this from my own calculations from the  drill results and didn't use exactly the same assumptions but happy to be in the same ball park. Also the change could be the change in spot price in rare earth oxides so i'm pretty happy. Re-running my calc with update spot price generate basket pricing of 35.5USD so very close to IXR's calcs.

Regardless, how's the payability! Revenue circa $24-27 USD!

Using the Biolantanidos opex from their PFS which IXR referred to as being comparable. was 6 USD/kg (TREO). Meaning IXR could produce at a margin of roughly 20USD/kg. Assuming a similar throughput is targeted which is around the 5000T of TREO concentrate equivalent (which btw capex costs to do this onlyt 30-50M to build). That's right 40M not 400M

So if producing 5,000,000kg P/A at profit of around 20USD this equates to 100M annualised profit. IF you see my previous post i had calculated profit at 109M USD. so i was within 10% which means the assumption as per Post #:45402783 were accurate. Note this post had the old basket case assumptions. I updated the revenue here Post #:45578193 and Post #:44834389

and here is the calculation i done to get the pay-ability Post #:44783725. Screenshot below was my working to get basket pricing.



I've had to revise my table and have also updated some of the figures for other companies. Note a significant increase in the MC of others which have increase by 40-80%. This has meant that all other companies NPV/MC has decreased between 4-20. Whilst IXR goes to over 50.

So with revising the calculations with updated basket pricing annualised profit moves to 105M USD p/a. You read that correctly. OPEX ~6USD Revenue ~26USD (wake up market).

@Scarpa - I'd encourage you to re-run your NPV calculator as the profit p/a is double what you had previously done. (If memory serves.) Post #:44532085

I got an NPV of around 750m USD on a 12% discount rate. Modeled on 25Y mine life and 40m USD capex. Which i think is pretty conservative. At 10% discount rate it adds ~ 100M USD.

Also note, the current resource size of 78mT @ 840PPM is enough to support a 13Y mine life based on the through-put assumed to be the same as biolantanidos. But it should be noted that the exploration target is 270-500Mt. so the actual mine life IMO will 50-60Y plus. So assume in time they will actually do north of 5000T P/A moving towards -> 10000T P/A. Which aligns with the commentary in the presentation.

Note the NPV only improves marginally after 25Y anyways.

For IRR it's inherently more affected by the initial capex and revenue. So i decided to run 2 scenario's.
1) A staged approach. 1000T p/a moving to 5000t p/a across 3-4years.  
2) Nameplate production in year 1.

1) NPV staged approach = 620M USD - IRR = 108%
2) NPV nameplate in Y1 = 790M USD - IRR = 250%

It's also worth noting that case 1 assumes all capex is spent in year 0 and the plant ramps to name production. Staged capex expenditure say 10M each year for 5 years would increase the IRR, IMO



Show me another project on the ASX which is set to generate 100M USD annualized profit per annum which requires less than 50M USD to achieve it. If it's market cap is less than 22M AUD i'll be a top 20 holder in it tomorrow.

Other key takeaways from presentation.
-31% ownership moving to 51% by Q4
-78mT resource base on 903m of drilling moving towards 500mT with 3700m's of drilling to come.
-SPP completed with cash in bank around 3M aud. Extra cash coming with option's to be exercised.
-Significant profit margins available. Basket $34.5 USD with payable basket revenue expected $25USD.
-Tier 1 infrastructure. Highway, Rail 10-20km's away. Hydro-electric power (cheap as chips)
-Near surface mineralogy open of all sides of exploration. (Read Rwenzori due diligence they've already proven mineralisation in the extension areas.
-Simple metallurgy 75% recoveries expected to produce 90% concentrate carbonate.
-No leaching of Th or U (radioactive elements) environmental concerns minimal
-Scaleable project. Modular/Hub and Spoke. Pilot plant to full production.
-Low capex - low opex
-Only public listed ionic clay rare earth deposit.
-Only one of four known economic ionic clay deposit outside china
-CEO 100% focused and committed. Management all invested
-Full support of community and government to progress

News to come;

Scoping study deliver in Q4
• In-fill drilling to upgrade resource classification and provide sample for advanced metallurgical testing;
• Exploration drilling in new areas;
• Metallurgical process development test work to support preliminary engineering;
• Resource development and mining studies;
• Preliminary Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIA);
• Preliminary mining, tailings and infrastructure assessments; Q3
• Product marketing and engagement with potential off-take partners.

Fundamentals are incredible.
Let's move towards the T/A


Daily:
inside 2 upwards trends, MACD is green and above the 0 mark. Bullish and Bullish
Stochastics are heading up and above 40. Bullish and Bullish.
EMA's stacked perfectly 20 above 50 above 100 above 200. All trending up and widening. Very Bullish.



weekly:
MACD green and above 0. Bullish and Bullish.
Stochastics appear to be rounding under and above the 40. Bullish

I've highlighted a similar scenario back in September which the MACD and stochastics may be repeating. Look at the S/P after, pop!

have highlighted the rough date of the SS completion so can make ones own estimate on price as per that point in time. Assuming the T/A trend continues this correlates roughly to 1.8c by the SS. That is a market cap of 44m. Which would value the project at exactly the same as it is today but would now own 51% instead of 31%. Which places no premium on the significant de-risking that would also occur.

So IMV 1.8c is my conservative view. which is 44M AUD MC is still less than 5% of the current NPV = 750M USD = 1BN AUD . for 51% ownership IXR equivalent NPV would be 500M AUD.
If IXR was priced at the NPV at 51% ownership S/P would be 20.5c.

I obviously don't think that's what IXR is worth now but what it will be worth when in production.

For context, Biolantanidos was bought out for 90M (by a major miner) and has half the grade and a smaller resource. On comparative terms IXR should be worth at minimum 50-60M AUD. with no upside given for superior economics. You also maximise project value by going to production which is what IMV IXR intend to do.

IMV Makuutu is a home run and i'm happy to be swinging the bat.
As always DYOR - and all figures are taken from company announcements and assumptions stated where applicable.

SF2TH