Ann: COVID-19 Trading Update, page-17

Maybe first a repeat of 2012's price doldrums of ~$0.11/share, ~$13m market cap, roughly NTA at the time from what I can tell.

AUD/USD headwind - large portion of SDI opex is foreign currency denominated so it's not completely exposed but still if the market decides SDI = exporter = exposed to overall headwind then prices might be depressed.

Silver price headwind - I get that SDI's sales are no longer that dependent on silver prices but it still might be tarred with the same brush by the market.

Borrowings will increase finance costs which will affect profits making SDI appear weaker than it might actually be.

I was looking back through the old shareholder change notices between 2011-2013 and it looks like some directors bought around the $0.20 price. Then it dropped to a low of $0.11 from the price data I can see. There was only this thread I could find from around that time time https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/radar.1799478/ and I can see prices of around $0.15 on the posts so for some time this seemed to trade like it was dead maybe because of the amalgam/aesthetics debate as well as the general market conditions but wasn't amalgam/aesthetics well known even in the 2006 report? Revenues were flat in 2009-2012 but that wouldn't be the first time that the revenue was fairly flat for a period before picking up again see 2004-2006 or 2016-2018. I guess my point is that it just wasn't dead even in spite of all of the things that were looking like they were suffocating SDI to death.

Maybe post covid has similar outcomes and the share price at NTA repeats in the next several years.

I'm not trying to say anything much about the cells I've noted below. Maybe the NPAT margin of 2.20% in 2011 H7 convinced people SDI was dead even though 2008 E7 had the same result and bounced back F7 and G7.

B15 - market cap at $148m 7 years prior to I14 low 91% loss
I14 - market cap at $13m low
M15 - market cap at $92.7m 14 months after I14 low ~7x
P15 - market cap at $127m about 4.5 years after I14 low ~9.8x

Lumpy is what I am also trying to get at. Imagine being 91% down after 7 years, who would feel like buying then but was it really that bad in 2012 or was it a great buying opportunity? I don't mean just a rhetorical question about hindsight, is there anyone around from that time or even earlier e.g. GFC years who is still around who can add anything?