Evening all, some food for thought for the week ahead...
For my own interest, I applied the cu
rrent market rates of the oxides for the current result at Yttria. These are Oxide prices, not metal (which are much higher) and more applicable as TNR would not be selling metal, just oxide best case scenario. (Or toll treating bulk material - whole other scenario not considered here)
^ USD per kg
I have scribbled the mkt price on the attached pic for those who are interested. (NMV= no market value). From this I have applied the ratio of the respective elements x their price to calculate a total price per kg of the TREOY in USD. This works out at an average of 81 US dollars a kg.
81usd/kg doesn't sound very attractive when compared to gold, but we need to look at scale. I am going to use some very generalised numbers for the following calculation based on the information provided to date.
Assumptions:
- 200 ppm TREOY average. (Sandbagged to buggery. I would assume this would be about cut off rate. We have received assays over 1000ppm)
- Strike 3.5km (they are investigating a potential 7.5)
- Width 750m (guess at average width from their statement "up to 1km wide')
- Depth 12m (approx average depth of drills to date)
- Density of mineralised regolith 1600kg/m3
These assumptions equate to 31.5 million cubic metres of regolith or about 50 million tonnes. At 200ppm TREOY, that delivers 10,000 tonnes of TREOY. At the market value for oxides calculated from the chart (81usd/kg) that values the hypothetical resource at 810 million usd. Or 1.17 billion Aud (or 26 times our mkt cap).
Fun fact -if we found scandium at 70ppm in ONLY 10% of the regolith here, you can add another 500 million aud to the kitty. Hence why think they keep getting excited everytime they utter the word.
You can either let your imagination run wild and work out what the value is if there is way over 200ppm TREOY, if they find Sc in half the resource or what if the resources doubles again in size, or we find the feeder system?
--- OR ---
You could literally halve all my sandbagged estimations and drop the scandium out altogether. Either way, add that to a few hundred thousand ounces of gold and I'll be damned if I can understand a 44m mkt cap.
DYOR & GLTA
(20min delay)