That NPV figure is based on what was the project fundamentals quite a while ago (but the board delayed the DFS for a very long time with no real explanation). They are also based on extremely conservative figures which are since well out of date and definitely on the low side.
The lithium fines are almost certain to be placed given the demand and current negotiations and the Scoping Study already had historic drilling for us to accurately leverage our efforts off and will probably be all locked in by years end taking us to 18-20 years mine life nevermind any of our virgin targets or some of our semi understood ones like BP33 shoring up more and more as we drill it (the deeper we've gone the bigger and richer its gotten).
We also feel pretty confident that the total resource and reserves are very likely to continue to expand significantly past the 30 MT range (currently we have about 40 million to throw at drilling and hundreds of large pegmatites to drill which have never seen a drill bit), not to mention the Gold finds earlier this year and obviously the Spod price is well and truely past 850 USD a ton used in the DFS.
Given the slow piecemeal speed new supply of lithium is likely to come online versus exponential growth, the new lithium deficit we find ourselves in as of this year is according to all the pro's out there only likely to get worse as the decade progresses and it's completely a seller's market, particularly those in the short term who can command never before seen premiums for their product.
Last reported figure by Platts was 1280 USD a ton. And our product is well above average quality, very clean and free of contaminants and EV hydroxide grade good with minimal fuss compared to other hard rock miners in Australia. We literally cannot supply all of the requested contracts being given to us right now and demand is at least 5 or 6 times higher than what we have on offer.
The most optimistic figures put out in the Upgraded DFS only factored in a ceiling of 850 and that NPV was 411 million. We are extremely likely to blow that NPV figure out of the water and likely won't need to take a dollar of debt on to actually get the project to FID. We can also double our production for a measley 37 million dollars (which almost covered by our oppies at 45 cents) which will yet again do incredible things for the NPV, the EBITDA and the Share price.
Also, using NPV is only one way of calculating value of a share (in the present time), a better way is EBITDA equations. Evolution did some projections recently, suggesting a SP of 78 cents but it also assumes a significant amount more dilution (not gonna happen) and lower Spod prices than we currently have. It also only uses EBITA 10 rule (which it confesses to), when EBITA 20 is more common and in Australia, most mines have a figure based on EBITA 14.
Long story short. Right place, right time, excellent composition of rocks and blessed with location (Just outside of Darwin city), extremely low CAPEX, extremely low operating costs, Extremely high Spodumene price to lock-in. Serious growth potential and very likely to rocket in price once we finally lock in our Off-takes as it will pretty much be compulsory for any partner to provide pre-paid finance (which immediately takes us to FID). You may just get on board the train in time because off-takes are expected to be done by the end of Q3.
